Settle down, the Leafs don’t have a window.

I read an article today that suggested the Toronto Maple Leafs have a “window” to win. I won’t name the article or author, because I don’t particularly think that’s fair to that person. All I’ll say is that it was from a major blogging network and it wasn’t Pension Plan Puppets. The exact line read:

“When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Patrick Marleau, it indicated that they were aware of their Entry-Level Contract mandated window of competitiveness.”

To me, this reads “Once the Holy Trinity’s ELCs have expired, and Marleau retires, the Leafs won’t be competitive.” Whether that’s the correct interpretation or not, it’s terribly wrong. The sad part? It’s not the first time I’ve seen it this offseason.

Let’s start this with an obvious statement: As long as you have Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the lineup, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be competitive. Having to type it out seems ridiculous. These are three of the best young players in the National Hockey League. Brendan, Lou, and the rest of the Leafs brass aren’t letting these three go anywhere, anytime soon.

On top of that, the Leafs drafted Timothy Liljegren, a player who has all the potential to be a top 2 defenceman on this team. Those four, combined with goalie Frederik Andersen, will keep this team in games for the foreseeable future.

But wait, there’s more! Add the other pieces of the core to the mix; Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zaitsev, and Zach Hyman are all locked up long-term, past the three years of Marleau’s contract, to very team-friendly deals. Throw in young guns like Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen, Travis Dermott, and Andrew Nielsen, and the nucleus of this team appears to be strong for years to come, farther past the end of Marleau’s contract.

Now, for the big question that everyone is asking: What about the salary cap?

First and foremost, let me acknowledge that it will undoubtedly be tricky for the team to work with the cap. Possible, but tricky. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander will all command big salaries and the team will be obligated to give it to them. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was close to the $27 million that Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins make up in Edmonton. Let’s assume they make $25 million for argument’s sake. ($10 mil for Matthews, and $7.5 mil each for Marner and Nylander).

Let’s also assume that the salary cap inflates by $5 million to $80 million? Any specific reason for the number? No. Just a round number.

SO, at the end of three years (the duration of Patrick Marleau’s contract), the Leafs will have $47.45 million committed to 8 players, plus $1.2 million left of Phil Kessel’s retained salary. At the end of three years, the following contracts come off the cap:

Patrick Marleau
Nathan Horton (RIGHT?!)
Matt Martin
Connor Brown

That’s $16.5 million. In all likelihood Brown will resign; lets give him $4.55 million to make the total an even $52 million committed to 9 players. Not too awful for your core team.

Given a hypothetical salary cap of $80 million, that means that the Leafs have $28 million to commit to 14 players. I like those numbers.

I’m not a cap specialist, nor will I pretend to be. The point I’m trying to make is that the Toronto Maple Leafs will be competitive after the Trio exit their ELC’s. No “window” was created when Patrick Marleau signed. They took advantage of a situation to ensure they were better sooner.

Finally, one more comment: Imagine if analysts said “Trading for Marian Hossa is the Penguins acknowledging they have a small window with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang” back in 2008? They’d be laughed out of buildings everywhere they went. Let’s drop this notion that the Toronto Maple Leafs have a “window to compete”. It’s silly.